Is history any guide to what markets might do given the potential tax changes? To answer this question, we studied the seven most recent tax law changes going back to 1981 — and the performance of the stock market six months before and after the change. We found no clear link between the direction of tax changes and equity markets. For the three tax increases since 1984, the S&P was up 5%, 14% and 16% in the 12 months surrounding the change. While tax policy and related sentiment certainly can impact equities in the short run, long-term investors will want to look at stocks more holistically.
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